Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 61.08%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 17.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Oldham Athletic win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| York City | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
| 61.08% ( | 21.51% ( | 17.41% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.79% ( | 45.21% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.45% ( | 67.55% ( |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.69% ( | 14.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.87% ( | 42.13% ( |
| Oldham Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.53% ( | 39.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.84% ( | 76.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| York City | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 10.98% ( 2-0 @ 10.67% ( 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 3-0 @ 6.92% ( 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 4-0 @ 3.36% ( 4-1 @ 3.13% ( 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 5-0 @ 1.31% ( 5-1 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 61.07% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( 0-0 @ 5.65% ( 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.5% | 0-1 @ 5.25% ( 1-2 @ 4.75% ( 0-2 @ 2.44% ( 1-3 @ 1.47% ( 2-3 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 2.08% Total : 17.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 46 | 31 | 9 | 6 | 97 | 38 | 59 | 102 |
| 2 | York City | 46 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 95 | 42 | 53 | 96 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 22 | 17 | 7 | 69 | 42 | 27 | 83 |
| 4 | Rochdale | 46 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 69 | 44 | 25 | 74 |
| 5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 73 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 70 |
| 7 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 59 | 48 | 11 | 68 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 76 | 68 | 8 | 67 |
| 9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 68 | 62 | 6 | 64 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 65 | 72 | -7 | 64 |
| 11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 60 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 59 | 64 | -5 | 60 |
| 13 | Eastleigh | 46 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 58 | 61 | -3 | 59 |
| 14 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 58 |
| 15 | Woking | 46 | 13 | 19 | 14 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 58 |
| 16 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 69 | 83 | -14 | 57 |
| 17 | Braintree TownBraintree | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 56 |
| 18 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 51 | 60 | -9 | 56 |
| 19 | Boston UnitedBoston | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 55 |
| 20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 56 | 76 | -20 | 53 |
| 21 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 61 | 62 | -1 | 52 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 57 | 75 | -18 | 52 |
| 23 | Fylde | 46 | 11 | 7 | 28 | 50 | 85 | -35 | 40 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 38 | 98 | -60 | 22 |
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