Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southend United win with a probability of 43.02%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southend United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southend United | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 43.02% ( | 26.55% ( | 30.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.31% ( | 53.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.82% ( | 75.18% ( |
| Southend United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.25% ( | 24.75% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.7% ( | 59.31% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.71% ( | 32.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.21% ( | 68.79% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Southend United | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 1-0 @ 11.16% ( 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 2-0 @ 7.79% ( 3-1 @ 4.1% ( 3-0 @ 3.63% ( 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 4-1 @ 1.43% ( 4-0 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 2.52% Total : 43.02% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0-0 @ 7.99% ( 2-2 @ 4.98% ( Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.54% | 0-1 @ 9.03% ( 1-2 @ 7.13% ( 0-2 @ 5.11% ( 1-3 @ 2.69% ( 0-3 @ 1.92% ( 2-3 @ 1.88% ( Other @ 2.68% Total : 30.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Notts County | 42 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 106 | 36 | 70 | 100 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 41 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 106 | 39 | 67 | 100 |
| 3 | Woking | 41 | 22 | 9 | 10 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 75 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 41 | 21 | 9 | 11 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 72 |
| 5 | Barnet | 41 | 20 | 8 | 13 | 73 | 64 | 9 | 68 |
| 6 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 41 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 65 |
| 7 | Eastleigh | 41 | 19 | 7 | 15 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 64 |
| 8 | Bromley | 41 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 60 | 50 | 10 | 62 |
| 9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 41 | 17 | 8 | 16 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 59 |
| 10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 41 | 17 | 7 | 17 | 57 | 67 | -10 | 58 |
| 11 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 41 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 60 | 59 | 1 | 56 |
| 12 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 41 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 56 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 61 | 73 | -12 | 53 |
| 14 | York City | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 49 |
| 15 | Halifax TownHalifax | 40 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 49 |
| 16 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 49 |
| 17 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 41 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 19 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 41 | 13 | 7 | 21 | 59 | 86 | -27 | 46 |
| 20 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 41 | 12 | 8 | 21 | 55 | 69 | -14 | 44 |
| 21 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 41 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 69 | -21 | 40 |
| 22 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 41 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 39 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 42 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 46 | 78 | -32 | 34 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 42 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 43 | 92 | -49 | 24 |
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