Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 50.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Burton Albion | 
| 50.24% (  -0.01) | 25.5% (  0) | 24.26% (  0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 49.62% (  -0) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 46.75% (  -0.01) | 53.25% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 25.19% (  -0.01) | 74.81% (  0.01) | 
| Port Vale Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.78% (  -0.01) | 21.22% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.89% (  -0.01) | 54.11% (  0.01) | 
| Burton Albion Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 62.98% (  0) | 37.01% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.2% (  0) | 73.8% (  0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Port Vale | Draw | Burton Albion | 
| 1-0 @ 12.17% 2-0 @ 9.44% (  -0) 2-1 @ 9.38% (  -0) 3-0 @ 4.88% (  -0) 3-1 @ 4.85% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.41% (  -0) 4-0 @ 1.89% (  -0) 4-1 @ 1.88% (  -0) 4-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.41% Total : 50.23% | 1-1 @ 12.1% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 7.85% (  0) 2-2 @ 4.66% (  -0) Other @ 0.88% Total : 25.49% | 0-1 @ 7.81% (  0) 1-2 @ 6.01% (  0) 0-2 @ 3.88% (  0) 1-3 @ 1.99% 2-3 @ 1.54% 0-3 @ 1.29% (  0) Other @ 1.74% Total : 24.26% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 43 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 76 | 46 | 30 | 92 | 
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 90 | 33 | 57 | 91 | 
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 77 | 37 | 40 | 90 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 43 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 85 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 43 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 75 | 
| 6 | Derby CountyDerby | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 66 | 44 | 22 | 75 | 
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 44 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 73 | 
| 8 | Portsmouth | 44 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 58 | 47 | 11 | 68 | 
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 44 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 68 | 
| 10 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 43 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 59 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 65 | 62 | 3 | 58 | 
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 44 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 57 | 
| 13 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 43 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 56 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 53 | 
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 66 | -11 | 52 | 
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 43 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 50 | 
| 17 | Port Vale | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 49 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 55 | 78 | -23 | 49 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 44 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 | 
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 43 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 41 | 
| 21 | Morecambe | 44 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 41 | 
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 43 | 11 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 66 | -29 | 40 | 
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 43 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 36 | 74 | -38 | 38 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 27 | 
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