Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 36.73%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Barnsley | 
| 36.73% (  -0.61) | 27.11% (  -0.28) | 36.15% (  0.88) | 
| Both teams to score 50.56% (  0.92) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.18% (  1.14) | 54.81% (  -1.15) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.88% (  0.94) | 76.12% (  -0.94) | 
| Port Vale Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.28% (  0.19) | 28.72% (  -0.19) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.45% (  0.24) | 64.55% (  -0.24) | 
| Barnsley Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.93% (  1.11) | 29.07% (  -1.11) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.01% (  1.35) | 64.98% (  -1.35) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Port Vale | Draw | Barnsley | 
| 1-0 @ 10.41% (  -0.41) 2-1 @ 8.03% (  -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.5% (  -0.22) 3-1 @ 3.34% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 2.7% (  -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.06% (  0.07) 4-1 @ 1.04% (  0.01) Other @ 2.65% Total : 36.73% | 1-1 @ 12.86% (  -0.11) 0-0 @ 8.35% (  -0.38) 2-2 @ 4.96% (  0.14) Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.1% | 0-1 @ 10.31% (  -0.14) 1-2 @ 7.95% (  0.18) 0-2 @ 6.37% (  0.11) 1-3 @ 3.27% (  0.17) 0-3 @ 2.62% (  0.12) 2-3 @ 2.04% (  0.12) 1-4 @ 1.01% (  0.08) Other @ 2.57% Total : 36.15% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 35 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 62 | 23 | 39 | 78 | 
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 37 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 65 | 41 | 24 | 77 | 
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 37 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 72 | 31 | 41 | 75 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 35 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 69 | 
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 37 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 59 | 37 | 22 | 64 | 
| 6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 64 | 
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 37 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 47 | 16 | 60 | 
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 37 | 18 | 6 | 13 | 50 | 35 | 15 | 60 | 
| 9 | Portsmouth | 37 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 42 | 9 | 57 | 
| 10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 37 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 55 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 48 | 
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 46 | 
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 45 | 
| 15 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 36 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 45 | 
| 16 | Port Vale | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 44 | 
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 43 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 41 | 
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 37 | 
| 20 | MK Dons | 37 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 36 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 35 | 
| 22 | Morecambe | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 37 | 62 | -25 | 34 | 
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 37 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 30 | 
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 37 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 71 | -43 | 23 | 
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