Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Barnsley in this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Barnsley |
| 43.71% ( | 25.43% ( | 30.85% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.06% ( | 48.94% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.97% ( | 71.02% ( |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% ( | 22.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.18% ( | 55.81% ( |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.42% ( | 29.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.4% ( | 65.6% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% ( 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 3-1 @ 4.52% 3-0 @ 3.71% ( 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.69% 4-0 @ 1.39% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.26% Total : 43.71% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 8.05% ( 1-2 @ 7.35% ( 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 1-3 @ 2.98% ( 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0-3 @ 1.99% ( 1-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.44% Total : 30.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 43 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 76 | 46 | 30 | 92 |
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 90 | 33 | 57 | 91 |
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 77 | 37 | 40 | 90 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 43 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 85 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 43 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 75 |
| 6 | Derby CountyDerby | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 66 | 44 | 22 | 75 |
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 44 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 73 |
| 8 | Portsmouth | 44 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 58 | 47 | 11 | 68 |
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 44 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 68 |
| 10 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 43 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 59 |
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 65 | 62 | 3 | 58 |
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 44 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 57 |
| 13 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 43 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 56 |
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 53 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 66 | -11 | 52 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 43 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 50 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 49 |
| 18 | Burton Albion | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 55 | 78 | -23 | 49 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 44 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 |
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 43 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 41 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 44 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 41 |
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 43 | 11 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 66 | -29 | 40 |
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 43 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 36 | 74 | -38 | 38 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 27 |
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