A four-game MLS homestand for Toronto concludes on Wednesday when they host the Eastern Conference leaders FC Cincinnati at BMO Field.
This past weekend, the Reds claimed their first home win of the year, 2-0 over DC United, while the Orange and Blue triumphed 2-1 in Cincinnati versus Austin FC.
Match preview
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Finally, Toronto gave their fans something to cheer about, winning at home for the first time since September 2024, ending an eight-match winless run at BMO Field in this competition.
The only two wins by Robin Fraser's side in MLS this year have occurred when drawing first blood, while they have not conceded in either of those affairs.
Toronto have a chance on Wednesday to win consecutive MLS matches for the first time since July-August of last year (two) and can win back-to-back domestic home outings for the first time since April-May 2024 (two).
After 12 league fixtures this season, they sit seven points below the Eastern Conference playoff line, scoring the second-fewest goals in their conference (10).
TFC currently boast an expected goals rate of 10.3 per Fbref, the second-lowest in the league this year, only slightly better than the Houston Dynamo (10.2).
They have rarely looked threatening when in possession this season, with the Reds sitting dead last, according to FotMob, when it comes to big chances created in MLS (17).
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While a lack of goals is holding back Toronto in 2025, Cincinnati have proven that you do not need to dominate in the attacking third to succeed.
Pat Noonan's group have scored the second-fewest goals among Eastern Conference sides currently in a playoff position (17) but have only gone pointless in one of their previous eight MLS affairs.
Their last six victories in this competition have been by a single goal, with Cincy scoring the opener on five of those occasions, while suffering just one league defeat this year by that narrow margin (1-0 at New York City FC).
All three of their defeats in MLS this season have come away from home, and they could match their longest domestic losing run of the year with another loss in midweek.
Cincinnati have picked up points in seven consecutive league matches when netting multiple times and have emerged victorious on five of those occasions with only one defeat.
Noonan has never lost to Toronto since he became the Orange and Blue head coach in 2022, winning all three of his visits to BMO Field by a one-goal margin, including a dramatic 4-3 come-from-behind victory in this exact fixture last season.
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Team News
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Once again, Henry Wingo, Richie Laryea, Deandre Kerr, and Markus Cimermancic were sidelined for Toronto with lower-body issues, while an upper-body injury kept captain Jonathan Osorio off the field on Saturday.
Lorenzo Insigne netted the winner against DC early in the second half, with an own goal by Lucas Bartlett providing them with some insurance and Sean Johnson making five stops for the clean sheet.
As for Cincinnati Obinna Nwobodo was the only omission against Austin with the Nigerian suffering from a leg injury, which will leave him questionable for this encounter.
Evander scored his seventh goal of the regular season in that triumph and Gerardo Valenzuela netted his second match-winner of 2025, enabling Noonan to surpass 200 points as an MLS head coach in his 114th match at the helm of Cincy, the fourth-quickest manager in this competition to achieve that milestone.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Thompson, Long, Rosted, Petretta; Flores, Longstaff; Bernardeschi, Insigne, Corbeanu; Etienne
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Orellano, Hagglund, Miazga, Robinson, Hadebe; Bucha, Evander, Kubo; Santos, Denkey
We say: Toronto 0-1 FC Cincinnati
The Orange and Blue have a much more balanced roster across the board, and Toronto will have to contend with many attacking threats, which is why we project Cincy to claim another narrow triumph.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
