

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 35.45% ( | 25.19% ( | 39.36% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.36% ( | 46.64% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.09% ( | 68.91% ( |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.41% ( | 25.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.54% ( | 60.46% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( | 23.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.52% ( | 57.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 8.18% ( 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 2-0 @ 5.58% ( 3-1 @ 3.68% ( 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 3-0 @ 2.54% ( 4-1 @ 1.25% ( 4-2 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.57% Total : 35.45% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0-0 @ 6% ( 2-2 @ 5.86% ( 3-3 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.18% | 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0-2 @ 6.31% ( 1-3 @ 4.16% ( 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 2-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.08% Total : 39.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 73 | 23 | 50 | 65 |
| 2 | Benfica | 27 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 22 | 43 | 65 |
| 3 | Porto | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 21 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 56 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 36 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nacional | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 27 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 46 | -29 | 15 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
