

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 41.16%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 41.16% ( | 24.17% ( | 34.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.97% ( | 42.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.56% ( | 64.43% ( |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.41% ( | 20.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.87% ( | 53.12% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.12% ( | 23.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.93% ( | 58.07% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 2-0 @ 6.14% ( 3-1 @ 4.63% ( 3-2 @ 3.32% ( 3-0 @ 3.23% ( 4-1 @ 1.83% ( 4-2 @ 1.31% 4-0 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 2.86% Total : 41.16% | 1-1 @ 11.12% 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0-0 @ 4.91% ( 3-3 @ 1.58% ( Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.16% | 1-2 @ 7.97% ( 0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0-2 @ 5.04% ( 1-3 @ 3.81% ( 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0-3 @ 2.41% ( 1-4 @ 1.36% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.96% Total : 34.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
| 1 | S | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | I | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | S | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | T | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 38 |
| 2 | Barnet | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 19 | 13 | 35 |
| 3 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 30 |
| 4 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Bromley | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 26 |
| 6 | Gateshead | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 22 |
| 8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 20 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 19 |
| 13 | Woking | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
| 14 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 18 |
| 15 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Ebbsfleet | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 16 |
| 17 | York City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 19 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 14 |
| 20 | Oxford CityOxford City | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 14 |
| 21 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 13 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
| 23 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 13 |
| 24 | Fylde | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 9 |
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