

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 44%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Gillingham |
| 30.76% ( | 25.24% ( | 44% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.27% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.83% ( | 48.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.68% ( | 70.32% ( |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.75% ( | 29.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.79% ( | 65.21% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.12% ( | 21.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.88% ( | 55.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Gillingham |
| 1-0 @ 7.87% ( 2-1 @ 7.35% ( 2-0 @ 4.83% 3-1 @ 3.01% ( 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 3-0 @ 1.98% ( 4-1 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 30.76% | 1-1 @ 11.95% 0-0 @ 6.4% ( 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 3-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 9.72% ( 1-2 @ 9.08% 0-2 @ 7.39% ( 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0-3 @ 3.74% ( 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0-4 @ 1.42% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.38% Total : 44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
| P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
| P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
| 4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
| 5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
| 6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
| 7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
| 8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
| 11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
| 13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
| 14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
| 15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
| 17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
| 19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
| 20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
| R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
