

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 26.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Gillingham |
| 48.05% ( | 25.76% ( | 26.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.17% ( | 52.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.55% ( | 74.45% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( | 21.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.7% ( | 55.3% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.88% ( | 35.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.13% ( | 71.87% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Gillingham |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 2-0 @ 8.86% ( 3-1 @ 4.68% ( 3-0 @ 4.47% ( 3-2 @ 2.45% ( 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 4-2 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.24% Total : 48.05% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0-0 @ 7.72% ( 2-2 @ 4.85% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.76% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0-2 @ 4.23% ( 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0-3 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 26.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 44 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 69 | 48 | 21 | 78 |
| 2 | Port Vale | 44 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 77 |
| 3 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 43 | 19 | 75 |
| 4 | Walsall | 44 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 74 | 53 | 21 | 74 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 70 |
| 6 | Notts County | 44 | 19 | 12 | 13 | 64 | 46 | 18 | 69 |
| 7 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 61 | 66 | -5 | 67 |
| 8 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 44 | 16 | 18 | 10 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 66 |
| 9 | Salford City | 44 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 65 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 53 | 15 | 64 |
| 11 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 62 |
| 12 | Bromley | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 58 | 56 | 2 | 62 |
| 13 | Swindon TownSwindon | 44 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 70 | 62 | 8 | 60 |
| 14 | BarrowBarrow | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 57 |
| 15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 44 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 57 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 57 | 65 | -8 | 57 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 54 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 44 | 14 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 50 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 50 |
| 20 | Newport CountyNewport | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 51 | 70 | -19 | 49 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 47 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 39 | 64 | -25 | 45 |
| 23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 44 | 10 | 11 | 23 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 41 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 44 | 10 | 6 | 28 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 36 |
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