Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 51.92%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 24.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | 
| 51.92% (  2.55) | 23.51% (  -0.68) | 24.58% (  -1.87) | 
| Both teams to score 56.19% (  0.39) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.26% (  1.38) | 44.74% (  -1.37) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.9% (  1.31) | 67.1% (  -1.31) | 
| RKC Waalwijk Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 82.76% (  1.5) | 17.25% (  -1.5) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.44% (  2.57) | 47.56% (  -2.56) | 
| Fortuna Sittard Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.9% (  -0.77) | 32.1% (  0.78) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.42% (  -0.89) | 68.58% (  0.89) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | 
| 1-0 @ 9.73% (  -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.72% (  0.16) 2-0 @ 8.55% (  0.32) 3-1 @ 5.69% (  0.36) 3-0 @ 5.01% (  0.42) 3-2 @ 3.23% (  0.14) 4-1 @ 2.5% (  0.27) 4-0 @ 2.2% (  0.28) 4-2 @ 1.42% (  0.13) Other @ 3.86% Total : 51.92% | 1-1 @ 11.05% (  -0.36) 0-0 @ 5.54% (  -0.34) 2-2 @ 5.52% (  -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.23% (  0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.5% | 0-1 @ 6.29% (  -0.52) 1-2 @ 6.28% (  -0.34) 0-2 @ 3.57% (  -0.38) 1-3 @ 2.38% (  -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.09% (  -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.35% (  -0.18) Other @ 2.61% Total : 24.58% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 28 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 67 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 
| 2 | Ajax | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 76 | 28 | 48 | 59 | 
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 33 | 42 | 59 | 
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 54 | 
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 52 | 
| 6 | FC Twente | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 51 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 42 | 
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 38 | 
| 9 | Heerenveen | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 38 | 
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 28 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 35 | 
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 32 | 
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 30 | 
| 13 | Vitesse | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 27 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 27 | 
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 29 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 27 | 
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 25 | 
| 17 | Groningen | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 17 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 28 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 55 | -34 | 16 | 
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