Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.55%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 12.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 69.55% ( | 18% ( | 12.45% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.29% ( | 39.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.93% ( | 62.07% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.69% ( | 10.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.27% ( | 33.73% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.1% ( | 42.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.8% ( | 79.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-0 @ 11.41% ( 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 3-0 @ 8.65% ( 3-1 @ 7.32% ( 4-0 @ 4.91% ( 4-1 @ 4.16% ( 3-2 @ 3.1% ( 5-0 @ 2.23% ( 5-1 @ 1.89% ( 4-2 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 4.42% Total : 69.54% | 1-1 @ 8.5% ( 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 2-2 @ 4.09% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 18% | 0-1 @ 3.74% ( 1-2 @ 3.6% ( 0-2 @ 1.58% ( 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 1-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 1.35% Total : 12.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 17 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Heracles | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ajax | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Vitesse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 |
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