

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Willem II |
| 31.84% ( | 23.55% ( | 44.61% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.01% ( | 39.99% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.64% ( | 62.36% ( |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.46% ( | 24.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.99% ( | 59.01% ( |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.75% ( | 18.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.7% ( | 49.3% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 1-0 @ 6.29% ( 2-0 @ 4.42% ( 3-1 @ 3.52% ( 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 3-0 @ 2.07% ( 4-1 @ 1.24% ( 4-2 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.73% Total : 31.84% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.48% ( 3-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.55% | 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0-2 @ 6.48% ( 1-3 @ 5.16% ( 0-3 @ 3.67% ( 2-3 @ 3.63% ( 1-4 @ 2.19% ( 0-4 @ 1.56% ( 2-4 @ 1.54% ( Other @ 3.65% Total : 44.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 35 | 58 | 70 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 72 | 33 | 39 | 65 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Groningen | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 36 |
| 11 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 34 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 34 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 32 |
| 16 | Willem II | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 25 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 19 |
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