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Bundesliga

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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 19, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Mainz logo

Union Berlin
2 - 1
Mainz

Amiri (5' pen.), Skov (24' pen.)
Kemlein (32'), Querfeld (86')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hollerbach (1')
Caci (26'), Bell (32')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg
Wednesday, January 15 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
45.48% (0.704 0.7)25.86% (0.032 0.03)28.65% (-0.736 -0.74)
Both teams to score 52.1% (-0.534 -0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.24% (-0.491 -0.49)51.76% (0.491 0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.47% (-0.429 -0.43)73.53% (0.42700000000001 0.43)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.29% (0.12 0.12)22.71% (-0.122 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.62% (0.177 0.18)56.37% (-0.18 -0.18)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.4% (-0.8 -0.8)32.59% (0.797 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.87% (-0.907 -0.91)69.13% (0.90600000000001 0.91)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 45.48%
    Mainz 05 28.65%
    Draw 25.86%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 10.97% (0.25 0.25)
2-1 @ 9.12% (0.044 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.13% (0.214 0.21)
3-1 @ 4.51% (0.038 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.02% (0.119 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.67% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.49% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 45.48%
1-1 @ 12.3% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.4% (0.144 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.11% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.86%
0-1 @ 8.3% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.9% (-0.144 -0.14)
0-2 @ 4.65% (-0.115 -0.12)
1-3 @ 2.58% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.91% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-3 @ 1.74% (-0.082 -0.08)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 28.65%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
20.0%
Draw
11.4%
Mainz 05
68.6%
70
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Mainz
1-1
Union Berlin
Amiri (53')
Kohr (7')
Benes (74')
Tousart (45+3'), Doekhi (52'), Gosens (90+8')
> Preview
Feb 7, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Mainz
1-1
Union Berlin
Burkardt (45+8')
Ajorque (15'), Kohr (89')
Gosens (45+13')
Vogt (53'), Leite (79'), Haberer (84'), Doekhi (89')
> Preview
Aug 20, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Union Berlin
4-1
Mainz
Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')
Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
2-1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Mainz
0-0
Union Berlin
Onisiwo (5')
> Preview