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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 19
Feb 4, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Mainz logo
Union Berlin
2 - 1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Seguin (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
Ajorque (45')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 2-1 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, January 31 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 0-4 Bayern
Wednesday, February 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

 The Union Berlin faithful will be hoping this fairytale lasts forever, and they will be pinching themselves if they can return to the top of the tree with a win here. Another heavy defeat to a side near the top in midweek shows where Mainz are currently at, and they may just be outplayed here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
56.95% (-0.781 -0.78) 23.61% (0.385 0.38) 19.44% (0.401 0.4)
Both teams to score 48.96% (-0.494 -0.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.05% (-0.997 -1)50.95% (1.001 1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.18% (-0.881 -0.88)72.82% (0.886 0.89)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.31% (-0.64 -0.64)17.69% (0.644 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.67% (-1.122 -1.12)48.32% (1.125 1.13)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.48% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)40.52% (0.138 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.88% (-0.119 -0.12)77.12% (0.124 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 56.94%
    Mainz 05 19.44%
    Draw 23.61%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 12.41% (0.24 0.24)
2-0 @ 10.75% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-0 @ 6.21% (-0.145 -0.15)
3-1 @ 5.61% (-0.152 -0.15)
4-0 @ 2.69% (-0.122 -0.12)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.079 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.43% (-0.119 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.1% (-0.058 -0.06)
5-0 @ 0.93% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 56.94%
1-1 @ 11.21% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 7.17% (0.284 0.28)
2-2 @ 4.39% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 23.61%
0-1 @ 6.47% (0.233 0.23)
1-2 @ 5.07% (0.059 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.93% (0.095 0.09)
1-3 @ 1.53% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 19.44%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
87.5%
Draw
10.0%
Mainz 05
2.5%
80
Head to Head
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz
0-0
Union Berlin

Onisiwo (5')
Feb 26, 2022 2.30pm
Union Berlin
3-1
Mainz
Haraguchi (8'), Becker (56'), Awoniyi (75')
Trimmel (42'), Jaeckel (67'), Baumgartl (90+2'), Khedira (90+2')
Burgzorg (90')
Svensson (12'), Hack (18'), Kohr (58'), Stoger (90+2')
Kohr (60')
Oct 3, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
1-2
Union Berlin
Ingvartsen (39')
Kohr (75')
Kohr (90+2')
Awoniyi (69', 73')
Haraguchi (45+2'), Knoche (65'), Promel (79'), Kruse (82')
Feb 6, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
1-0
Union Berlin
Niakhate (22' pen.)
Kohr (28'), Barreiro (40')

Schlotterbeck (21'), Teuchert (33'), Knoche (60'), Trimmel (67')
Schlotterbeck (55')
> Preview
Oct 2, 2020 7.30pm
Union Berlin
4-0
Mainz
Kruse (13'), Ingvartsen (49'), Friedrich (63'), Pohjanpalo (64')
Trimmel (33')

Mateta (53'), Latza (59'), Boetius (67'), St Juste (78')
> Preview
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayern MunichBayern34218592385471
2Borussia DortmundDortmund34225783443971
3RB Leipzig34206864412366
4Union BerlinUnion Berlin34188851381362
5Freiburg3417895144759
6Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen34148125749850
7Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt341311105852650
8Wolfsburg341310115748949
9Mainz 05Mainz341210125455-146
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach341110135255-343
11FC Koln341012124954-542
12Hoffenheim34106184857-936
13Werder Bremen34106185164-1336
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum34105194072-3235
15Augsburg3497184263-2134
16Stuttgart34712154557-1233
RSchalke 04Schalke34710173571-3631
RHertha Berlin3478194269-2729
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