Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.