

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 55.02%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 22.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.85%) and 0-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-0 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Bayer Leverkusen in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Bayer Leverkusen.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 22.07% ( | 22.9% ( | 55.02% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.09% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.26% ( | 44.74% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.9% ( | 67.1% ( |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( | 34.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.99% ( | 71.01% ( |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.86% ( | 16.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.42% ( | 45.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 1-0 @ 5.92% ( 2-1 @ 5.78% ( 2-0 @ 3.17% ( 3-1 @ 2.06% ( 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 3-0 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 2.13% Total : 22.07% | 1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0-0 @ 5.54% ( 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.9% | 0-1 @ 10.09% ( 1-2 @ 9.85% ( 0-2 @ 9.21% ( 1-3 @ 5.99% ( 0-3 @ 5.6% ( 2-3 @ 3.21% ( 1-4 @ 2.73% ( 0-4 @ 2.55% ( 2-4 @ 1.46% ( 1-5 @ 1% ( 0-5 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.4% Total : 55.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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