Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 6

Oct 5, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Forsterei

Union Berlin
2 - 1
Dortmund

Vogt (26' pen.), Vertessen (45')
Vogt (15'), Woo-yeong (41'), Rothe (84'), Trimmel (89')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ryerson (62')
Schlotterbeck (17'), Sabitzer (83'), Anton (90+4'), Bensebaini (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 7-1 Celtic
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
39.05% ( -0.38)	24.12% ( -0.06)	36.83% ( 0.43)

Both teams to score 61% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.54% (

0.32)

41.46% (

-0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.14% (

0.32)

63.86% (

-0.33)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.66% (

-0.04)

21.34% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.7% (

-0.07)

54.3% (

0.06)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.55% (

0.37)

22.45% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.01% (

0.55)

55.99% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 39.05%

Borussia Dortmund 36.83%

Draw 24.11%

Union Berlin	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.54% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.4% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.4% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 39.05%	1-1 @ 11.05% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.79% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.11%	1-2 @ 8.26% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.83%