
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 56.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli | 
| 21.67% (  -0) | 22.17% | 56.17% (  0) | 
| Both teams to score 57.01% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.08% (  -0.01) | 41.92% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 35.67% (  -0.01) | 64.33% (  0.01) | 
| Union Berlin Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.9% (  -0.01) | 33.1% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.3% (  -0.01) | 69.7% (  0.01) | 
| St Pauli Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 85.22% (  -0) | 14.78% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.97% (  -0.01) | 43.03% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli | 
| 2-1 @ 5.72% 1-0 @ 5.41% (  0) 2-0 @ 2.99% 3-1 @ 2.11% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.01% (  -0) 3-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.33% Total : 21.67% | 1-1 @ 10.34% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 5.47% (  -0) 0-0 @ 4.89% (  0) 3-3 @ 1.28% (  -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.17% | 1-2 @ 9.89% 0-1 @ 9.35% (  0) 0-2 @ 8.94% (  0) 1-3 @ 6.3% (  -0) 0-3 @ 5.7% (  0) 2-3 @ 3.48% (  -0) 1-4 @ 3.01% (  -0) 0-4 @ 2.72% 2-4 @ 1.67% (  -0) 1-5 @ 1.15% 0-5 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.91% Total : 56.17% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 | 
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 | 
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 | 
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 | 
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 | 
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 | 
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 | 
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 | 
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 | 
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 | 
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 | 
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 | 
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 | 
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 | 
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 | 
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 | 
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 | 
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 | 
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