
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 56.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli |
| 21.67% ( | 22.17% | 56.17% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.01% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.08% ( | 41.92% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.67% ( | 64.33% ( |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.9% ( | 33.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.3% ( | 69.7% ( |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.22% ( | 14.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.97% ( | 43.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 5.72% 1-0 @ 5.41% ( 2-0 @ 2.99% 3-1 @ 2.11% ( 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 3-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.33% Total : 21.67% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0-0 @ 4.89% ( 3-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.17% | 1-2 @ 9.89% 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0-2 @ 8.94% ( 1-3 @ 6.3% ( 0-3 @ 5.7% ( 2-3 @ 3.48% ( 1-4 @ 3.01% ( 0-4 @ 2.72% 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 1-5 @ 1.15% 0-5 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.91% Total : 56.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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