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Heidenheim
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 16
Jan 11, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
VfL Bochum

Mainz
2 - 0
VfL Bochum

Burkardt (23', 69')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Hofmann (33'), Sissoko (45+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and VfL Bochum, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Frankfurt 1-3 Mainz
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: VfL Bochum 2-0 Heidenheim
Sunday, December 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 2-1 VfL Bochum

Mainz are enjoying their best season in recent memory and have dominated this fixture with four wins and a draw in their last five league encounters against Bochum. The hosts ended 2024 with five wins in their last six games, and we feel they will kickstart the New Year with a victory in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawVfL Bochum
49.15% (-0.207 -0.21) 23.85% (0.055 0.05) 27% (0.157 0.16)
Both teams to score 57.4% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.78% (-0.126 -0.13)44.22% (0.129 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.4% (-0.121 -0.12)66.6% (0.125 0.13)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.9% (-0.128 -0.13)18.1% (0.131 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.96% (-0.22 -0.22)49.04% (0.22499999999999 0.22)
VfL Bochum Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.09% (0.049999999999997 0.05)29.91% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.99% (0.061 0.06)66.01% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 49.15%
    VfL Bochum 27%
    Draw 23.84%
Mainz 05DrawVfL Bochum
2-1 @ 9.55% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.25% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.91% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.44% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.51% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.28% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.32% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.93% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.4% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 49.15%
1-1 @ 11.16% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.76%
0-0 @ 5.41% (0.03 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.84%
1-2 @ 6.74% (0.027 0.03)
0-1 @ 6.53% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 3.94% (0.033 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.71% (0.015 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.59% (0.015 0.02)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 27%

How you voted: Mainz vs VfL Bochum

Mainz 05
92.1%
Draw
4.8%
VfL Bochum
3.2%
63
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 26
Mainz
2-0
VfL Bochum
Burkardt (45+3' pen., 71')
Kohr (1'), Ajorque (8'), van den Berg (84'), Amiri (88')

Bernardo (33'), Osterhage (47'), Schlotterbeck (86')
Oct 27, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 9
VfL Bochum
2-2
Mainz
Stoger (21' pen.), Schlotterbeck (82')
Bernardo (51'), Paciencia (88'), Losilla (90+5')
Schlotterbeck (59' og.), Krauss (90+6')
Barreiro (15'), Kohr (20'), Jae-sung (71')
Jan 28, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 18
Mainz
5-2
VfL Bochum
Jae-sung (1'), Widmer (17'), Onisiwo (28', 57', 87')
Kunde (70'), Masovic (72')
Aug 6, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
VfL Bochum
1-2
Mainz
Stoger (39')
Stafylidis (13'), Ganvoula (90+3')
Onisiwo (26', 77')
Stach (33'), Bell (64'), Burgzorg (84')
Jan 18, 2022 7.45pm
Last 16
VfL Bochum
3-1
Mainz
Pantovic (56' pen., 59'), Lowen (80')
Onisiwo (36')
Jae-sung (14'), Barreiro (55'), Bell (65'), Stach (75')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern31236290296175
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen311910266353167
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt31167862422055
4Freiburg31156104447-351
5RB Leipzig31131084842649
6Borussia DortmundDortmund311461160491148
7Mainz 05Mainz31138104839947
8Werder Bremen31137114854-646
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach31135135150144
10Augsburg311110103342-943
11Stuttgart31118125651541
12Wolfsburg31109125348539
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin3199133145-1436
14St Pauli3187162636-1031
15Hoffenheim3179154058-1830
16Heidenheim3174203360-2725
17Holstein Kiel3157194574-2922
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum3156203063-3321


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