Augsburg logo
Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
Leipzig logo
Stuttgart
Union Berlin logo
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen logo
Wolfsburg
Bundesliga desktop header

Bundesliga

Leverkusen logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
BayArena
Mainz logo

B. Leverkusen
1 - 0
Mainz

Grimaldo (48')
Mukiele (69'), Xhaka (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Sieb (17'), Bell (51'), Caci (68'), Sieb (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Friday, January 10 at 7.45pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 2-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 9.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
76.08% (0.235 0.23)14.59% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)9.33% (-0.2289 -0.23)
Both teams to score 52.72% (-1.031 -1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.86% (-0.77799999999999 -0.78)32.13% (0.777 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.28% (-0.914 -0.91)53.72% (0.912 0.91)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.01% (-0.129 -0.13)6.99% (0.128 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.41% (-0.34 -0.34)25.59% (0.338 0.34)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.68% (-1.029 -1.03)43.32% (1.027 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.44% (-0.871 -0.87)79.56% (0.871 0.87)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 76.07%
    Mainz 05 9.33%
    Draw 14.59%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.71% (0.3 0.3)
3-0 @ 9.51% (0.204 0.2)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.281 0.28)
3-1 @ 7.95% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
4-0 @ 6.32% (0.093 0.09)
4-1 @ 5.29% (-0.071 -0.07)
5-0 @ 3.36% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.118 -0.12)
5-1 @ 2.82% (-0.058 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.094 -0.09)
6-0 @ 1.49% (0.002 0)
6-1 @ 1.25% (-0.035 -0.03)
5-2 @ 1.18% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 76.07%
1-1 @ 6.74% (0.048 0.05)
2-2 @ 3.75% (-0.106 -0.11)
0-0 @ 3.03% (0.126 0.13)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 14.59%
1-2 @ 2.82% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-1 @ 2.53% (0.035 0.03)
0-2 @ 1.06% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.05% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 9.33%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
84.1%
Draw
10.3%
Mainz 05
5.6%
126
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Mainz
Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')
> Preview
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayern MunichBayern34257299326782
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen341912372432969
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt34179868462260
4Borussia DortmundDortmund341761171512057
5Freiburg34167114953-455
6Mainz 05Mainz3414101055431252
7RB Leipzig34131295348551
8Werder Bremen34149115457-351
9Stuttgart341481264531150
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach34136155557-245
11Wolfsburg341110135654243
12Augsburg341110133551-1643
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin341010143551-1640
14St Pauli3488182841-1332
15Hoffenheim34711164668-2232
16Heidenheim3485213764-2729
RHolstein Kiel3467214980-3125
RVfL BochumVfL Bochum3467213367-3425
> Bundesliga Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!