Bundesliga | Gameweek 1
Aug 20, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Union Berlin4 - 1Mainz
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05
Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday. Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
50.29% ( 1.17) | 24.89% ( 0.06) | 24.82% ( -1.23) |
| Both teams to score 52% ( -1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
