

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 50.65%. A win for Raith Rovers had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Raith Rovers win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Raith Rovers |
| 50.65% ( | 24.22% ( | 25.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.4% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.63% ( | 47.37% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.41% ( | 69.59% ( |
| Greenock Morton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.27% ( | 18.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.9% ( | 50.1% ( |
| Raith Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.94% ( | 33.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.35% ( | 69.65% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Raith Rovers |
| 1-0 @ 10.37% ( 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 2-0 @ 8.69% ( 3-1 @ 5.37% ( 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 4-1 @ 2.25% ( 4-0 @ 2.03% ( 4-2 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 3.25% Total : 50.65% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 3-3 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.21% | 0-1 @ 6.85% ( 1-2 @ 6.35% ( 0-2 @ 3.79% ( 1-3 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0-3 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 2.43% Total : 25.13% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FalkirkFalkirk | 30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 66 |
| 2 | Ayr UnitedAyr | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 30 | 20 | 55 |
| 3 | Livingston | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 41 | 24 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Partick ThistlePartick | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 5 | Greenock MortonMorton | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 40 |
| 6 | Raith Rovers | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 38 |
| 7 | Queen's ParkQueen's Park | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 33 |
| 8 | Hamilton AcademicalHamilton | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
| 9 | Dunfermline AthleticDunfermline | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | AirdrieoniansAirdrieonians | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 21 |
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