

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 23.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 50.06% ( | 26.53% ( | 23.42% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.3% ( | 57.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.54% ( | 78.46% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.85% ( | 23.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.97% ( | 57.03% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.71% ( | 40.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.08% ( | 76.92% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 13.64% ( 2-0 @ 9.98% ( 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 3-0 @ 4.87% ( 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 4-0 @ 1.78% ( 4-1 @ 1.62% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 50.05% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 2-2 @ 4.13% ( Other @ 0.66% Total : 26.52% | 0-1 @ 8.48% ( 1-2 @ 5.64% ( 0-2 @ 3.86% ( 1-3 @ 1.71% ( 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 1.32% Total : 23.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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