Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 35.63%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (11.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 35.63% ( | 28.77% ( | 35.6% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.51% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.95% ( | 61.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.97% ( | 81.03% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.47% ( | 32.52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.94% ( | 69.05% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.45% ( | 32.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.92% ( | 69.08% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 11.88% ( 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 2-0 @ 6.68% ( 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 3-2 @ 1.58% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 35.62% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( 0-0 @ 10.58% ( 2-2 @ 4.21% ( Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.76% | 0-1 @ 11.88% ( 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0-2 @ 6.67% ( 1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0-3 @ 2.5% ( 2-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.68% Total : 35.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
| 3 | Braga | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 65 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 39 |
| 9 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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