Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 35.3%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (12.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
| 35.3% ( | 29.84% ( | 34.86% ( |
| Both teams to score 42.57% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.41% ( | 64.58% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.4% ( | 83.6% ( |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.4% ( | 34.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.68% ( | 71.32% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( | 34.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.36% ( | 71.64% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.81% ( 2-1 @ 7.16% ( 2-0 @ 6.8% ( 3-1 @ 2.53% ( 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 3-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.3% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.07% ( 2-2 @ 3.77% ( Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.83% | 0-1 @ 12.71% ( 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0-3 @ 2.35% ( 2-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 2.2% Total : 34.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
| 3 | Braga | 27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
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