Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (10.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tranmere Rovers | Draw | Newport County | 
| 39.04% (  0.01) | 28.05% (  0) | 32.91% (  -0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 47.32% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 41.31% (  -0.01) | 58.69% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 20.77% (  -0.01) | 79.23% (  0.01) | 
| Tranmere Rovers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.76% (  0) | 29.24% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.81% (  0) | 65.19% (  -0) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.87% (  -0.01) | 33.13% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.27% (  -0.02) | 69.73% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Tranmere Rovers | Draw | Newport County | 
| 1-0 @ 11.91% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 8.09% (  0) 2-0 @ 7.32% (  0) 3-1 @ 3.32% 3-0 @ 3% (  0) 3-2 @ 1.83% (  -0) 4-1 @ 1.02% (  0) 4-0 @ 0.92% (  0) Other @ 1.62% Total : 39.04% | 1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.69% (  0) 2-2 @ 4.47% (  -0) Other @ 0.74% Total : 28.04% | 0-1 @ 10.7% 1-2 @ 7.27% (  -0) 0-2 @ 5.91% (  -0) 1-3 @ 2.68% (  -0) 0-3 @ 2.18% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.65% (  -0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 32.91% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 43 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 87 | 
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 44 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 80 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 43 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 76 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 61 | 36 | 25 | 75 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 75 | 
| 6 | Salford City | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 69 | 51 | 18 | 72 | 
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 72 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 72 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 44 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 62 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 58 | 
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 57 | 
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 57 | 
| 13 | Grimsby Town | 43 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 55 | 
| 14 | Newport CountyNewport | 43 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 53 | 
| 15 | Gillingham | 44 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 52 | 
| 16 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 44 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 52 | 
| 17 | Walsall | 44 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 51 | 
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 42 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 51 | 
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 44 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 49 | 
| 20 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 47 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 43 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 53 | 64 | -11 | 45 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 45 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 44 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 48 | 76 | -28 | 39 | 
| R | Rochdale | 44 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 34 | 
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