MX23RW : Thursday, May 29 09:20:23| >> :60:1580:1580:
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UEFA Conference League
Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 17, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Seaview

Crusaders
3 - 1
Caernarfon

Clarke (47'), Larmour (49'), Lowry (72')
Larmour (75'), Forsythe (86'), Weir (89'), Boyd (111')
FT
(aet)
Mendes (24')
Caernarfon win 8-7 on penalties
Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Crusaders and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crusaders

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Caernarfon 2-0 Crusaders
Thursday, July 11 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Caernarfon 2-0 Crusaders
Thursday, July 11 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 47.16%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%).

Result
CrusadersDrawCaernarfon Town
47.16% (-0.073 -0.07) 22.4% (-0.133 -0.13) 30.44% (0.207 0.21)
Both teams to score 65.18% (0.637 0.64)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.91% (0.782 0.78)35.09% (-0.78 -0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.91% (0.867 0.87)57.09% (-0.866 -0.87)
Crusaders Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.62% (0.27 0.27)15.38% (-0.269 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.82% (0.501 0.5)44.18% (-0.5 -0.5)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.02% (0.51000000000001 0.51)22.98% (-0.508 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.23% (0.745 0.74)56.77% (-0.745 -0.74)
Score Analysis
    Crusaders 47.16%
    Caernarfon Town 30.44%
    Draw 22.41%
CrusadersDrawCaernarfon Town
2-1 @ 9.11% (-0.052000000000001 -0.05)
1-0 @ 6.62% (-0.201 -0.2)
2-0 @ 6.19% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.68% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 4.18% (0.077 0.08)
3-0 @ 3.86% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.66% (0.034 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.96% (0.054 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.81% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1% (0.022 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.96% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 47.16%
1-1 @ 9.73% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 6.7% (0.063 0.06)
0-0 @ 3.53% (-0.141 -0.14)
3-3 @ 2.05% (0.068 0.07)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.41%
1-2 @ 7.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.2% (-0.128 -0.13)
0-2 @ 3.82% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.51% (0.052 0.05)
2-3 @ 3.28% (0.079 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.87% (0.01 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.29% (0.039 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.21% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 30.44%

How you voted: Crusaders vs Caernarfon

Crusaders
58.3%
Draw
25.0%
Caernarfon Town
16.7%
12
Head to Head
Jul 11, 2024 6.30pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Caernarfon
2-0
Crusaders
Owen (4'), Clarke (37')
Clarke (63'), Thomas (77'), Owen (84')

Offord (15'), Stewart (31'), Clarke (45+1'), Lowry (67'), O'Rourke (77')
rhs 2.0
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