We said: Lithuania 1-2 Finland
The onus will be on Finland to attack, as they must keep compiling points against Group G's minnows if they are to make it through to the World Cup playoffs.
While Lithuania may be able to exploit any space, an overall deficit of quality in key areas should result in yet another defeat - their ninth in a row.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 35.66%. A win for Finland had a probability of 35.48% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (11.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.