Even an improbable win in Sao Paulo may not be enough for Sporting Cristal to stay in this year's Copa Libertadores, as they visit Group G winners Palmeiras on Wednesday.
While the hosts have already secured their place in the knockout rounds, Cristal trail second-placed Cerro Porteno by three points and also have an inferior goal difference.
Match preview
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Wrapping up first place in Group G with one round to spare, Palmeiras won 2-0 at home to Bolivar last time out in South America's top tournament, posting their fifth Copa Libertadores success in a row.
It has been a tale of total dominance so far, as no other team across the competition has spent more time ahead in the 2025 edition. Not only have they led for a total of 333 minutes, Verdao are the only side yet to trail in the group phase.
Abel Ferreira's side may have suffered a rare setback on Sunday, losing 2-0 to potential title rivals Flamengo in the Campeonato Brasileiro, but they have also proved to be formidable on the domestic front.
The Sao Paulo club still top Serie A by one point, having won seven of their first 10 league games, and they seem to be in good shape for a crack at the new FIFA Club World Cup.
Though star man Estevao is due to leave for Chelsea after the latter tournament's conclusion, the three-time continental champions have invested heavily in their squad and Ferreira can even afford to rotate it on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, Palmeiras want to protect a 22-game unbeaten streak at home in the Libertadores, so they will not take their final group opponents lightly.
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Indeed, the Brazilian giants only prevailed in April's reverse fixture after a dramatic finale at Lima's Estadio Nacional: Estevao struck first before both teams scored twice in the final half-hour, with Richard Rios netting a stoppage-time decider.
Since that opening-day clash, Sporting Cristal have accrued just four points from four subsequent fixtures, most recently losing a crucial contest against Cerro Porteno. Losing at home to the Paraguayan side left them third in Group G and set to drop into the Copa Sudamericana.
On seven points, Cerro Porteno only need to avoid losing heavily against rock-bottom Bolivar; so Cristal are unlikely to reach the knockout rounds of this year's Libertadores, barring a bizarre turn of events on the final matchday.
The last time Los Celestes visited Brazil, they earned a point against Fluminense, finally ending their run of 12 straight losses in South America's most successful nation.
Now, Paulo Autuori's team - who sit only eighth in Peru's Apertura standings - must somehow win in Sao Paulo and then hope for a minor miracle.
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Team News
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Palmeiras coach Abel Ferreira will be back on the touchline after serving a domestic ban, while Richard Rios also returns from suspension; he could replace Lucas Evangelista in midfield if the hosts name a strong starting XI.
Amid disciplinary issues, Gustavo Gomez and Murilo will both miss the upcoming Brasileiro match against Cruzeiro - Verdao's last outing before taking part in the Club World Cup - but both are available on Wednesday. Only Felipe Anderson (thigh) is set to miss out through injury.
In defence, Gomez won his 50th Copa Libertadores game with the club earlier this month, and only two players have ever had more wins for one team: Rogerio Ceni (51 for Sao Paulo) and Weverton (53 for Palmeiras).
Up front, Vitor Roque - the most expensive signing in Brazilian football history - should link up with Estevao, unless Ferreira opts to rotate his resources.
Premier League-bound this summer, Estevao was also ruled out by a ban last weekend, but he has netted three goals in Group G so far. Meanwhile, Martin Cauteruccio is Sporting Cristal's leading scorer with two.
The latter recently became the fourth-oldest player to score a brace in the Libertadores, notching both goals in a 2-1 win over Bolivar at the age of 38 years and 24 days.
Cristal are still missing captain and long-term absentee Yoshimar Yotun, who will be joined on the sidelines by Luis Iberico, Renato Solis and Santiago Gonzalez.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Fuchs, Cerqueira, Piquerez; Rios, Martinez; Estevao, Mauricio, Luighi; Roque
Sporting Cristal possible starting lineup:
Enriquez; Lora, Romero, Lutiger, Pasquini; Pretell, Tavara, Wisdom; Gonzales, Cauteruccio, Pacheco
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 Sporting Cristal
Though Cristal will be more motivated, their hopes of qualifying for the next round are only paper thin.
Even a rotated Palmeiras side would have too much firepower for the Peruvians to handle, so they are set to finish third and slip into the Sudamericana.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
