Lugano will hope to turn around their one-goal deficit on Thursday when they host Celje at Stockhorn Arena in the second leg of their Conference League round of 16 clash.
Thursday's visitors won the first leg 1-0 thanks to Tamar Svetlin's 23rd-minute winner, and the hosts will have to win at home in a European knockout tie for the first time in six attempts if they are to progress.
Match preview
![Mattia Croci-Torti football coach of Lugano at the qualification match for the UEFA Europa League against Partizan at the Partizan stadium, Belgrade, on August 8, 2024 [on August 13, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/33/mattia-croci-torti.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Mattia Croci-Torti football coach of Lugano at the qualification match for the UEFA Europa League against Partizan at the Partizan stadium, Belgrade, on August 8, 2024 [on August 13, 2024]")
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Lugano somehow failed to score despite creating nearly two xG and 11 attempts inside the box in the first leg, six of which were produced near the penalty spot.
The hosts are currently fourth in the Swiss top flight with 42 points, and they qualified automatically for the round of 16 having finished sixth in the Conference League table with 13 points from six fixtures.
It should be noted that the Pride of Ticino are unbeaten in their past three home matches in the Conference League, scoring at least two goals in those games, but they only kept one clean sheet in their last five in the tournament.
However, boss Mattia Croci-Torti will be deeply concerned by his side's form given they have been beaten in each of their last five matches without scoring.
To their credit, Lugano's defeat at home against FC Zurich on March 2 was their first in six outings – drawing three and winning two – and they did triumph in six of their prior seven at Stockhorn Arena in all competitions.
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Opponents Celje created little in the final third last Thursday but scored their only big chance, and they also failed to produce a single shot on target in the second half.
The visitors' timid attacking display against Lugano should perhaps be seen in isolation, especially as they had found the back of the net on seven occasions in their previous three Conference League matches.
Manager Albert Riera's side are fifth in the Slovenian top flight with 36 points, while they finished 21st in the Conference League table and defeated APOEL Nicosia 4-2 in a playoff tie to qualify for the round of 16.
The Counts have been difficult to beat in the past weeks given they have only lost one of their last eight, winning four and being held to a stalemate in three.
Riera's team have not been as strong on the road, with the club drawing three, succumbing to defeat in two and emerging victorious in one of their six most recent fixtures away from home.
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Team News
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Lugano will have to contend with the absence of forwards Hicham Mahou, Ignacio Aliseda and Shkelqim Vladi.
As such, expect Renato Steffen, Georgios Koutsias and Mattia Bottani to appear in a front three on Thursday.
Defenders Martim Marques and Antonios Papadopoulos are also unavailable, and that may mean Ayman El Wafi, Lars Lukas Mai and Albian Hajdari could start in a back three.
As for Celje, they are likely to use a similar starting XI to the side that earned victory in the first leg, and that makes centre-backs Klemen Nemanic and Damjan Vuklisevic almost certain to feature.
Svit Seslar, Mark Zabukovnik and Mario Kvesic are candidates to play in a midfield three, while striker Armandas Kucys may be flanked by Logan Delaurier-Chaubet and Tamar Svetlin.
Lugano possible starting lineup:
Saipi; El Wafi, Mai, Hajdari; Zanotti, Mahmoud, Grgic, Valenzuela; Steffen, Koutsias, Bottani
Celje possible starting lineup:
Silva; Nieto, Vuklisevic, Nemanic, Karnicnik; Seslar, Zabukovnik, Kvesic; Delaurier-Chaubet, Kucys, Svetlin
We say: Lugano 2-0 Celje (Lugano win 2-1 on aggregate)
Lugano boast a good offensive record in the Conference League and will believe that they can overturn their deficit.
Additionally, Celje's away form has been subpar in the past weeks, and it would not be surprising if they conceded more than once on Thursday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
