MX23RW : Thursday, May 29 06:42:27| >> :120:33949:33949:
Celje
Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 6, 2025 at 8pm UK
Stadion Z'dezele
Lugano

Celje
1 - 0
Lugano

Svetlin (23')
Kucys (52'), Nemanic (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Hajdari (16'), Bottani (59')
Papadopoulos (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Celje and Lugano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-0 Celje
Sunday, March 2 at 2pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga
Last Game: Lugano 0-3 FC Zurich
Sunday, March 2 at 1.15pm in Swiss Super League

We said: Celje 1-1 Lugano

With Celje on a high after the knockout playoff tie, we are backing them to earn at least a share of the spoils from this contest. However, we have to respect Lugano's exploits in the League Phase, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 43.67%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.

Result
CeljeDrawLugano
43.67% (0.202 0.2) 22.48% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02) 33.85% (-0.186 -0.19)
Both teams to score 66.57% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.06% (0.021000000000001 0.02)33.94% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.2% (0.025000000000006 0.03)55.8% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)
Celje Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.78% (0.084000000000003 0.08)16.22% (-0.087999999999997 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.29% (0.156 0.16)45.71% (-0.16 -0.16)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.46% (-0.085000000000008 -0.09)20.54% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.94% (-0.135 -0.13)53.06% (0.13 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Celje 43.67%
    Lugano 33.85%
    Draw 22.48%
CeljeDrawLugano
2-1 @ 8.72% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 6.06% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.51% (0.026 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.29% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 4.19% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.34% (0.025 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.41% (0.019 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.9% (0.01 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.52% (0.015 0.02)
4-3 @ 1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 43.67%
1-1 @ 9.59% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-0 @ 3.33% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 2.21% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.48%
1-2 @ 7.59% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
0-1 @ 5.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.17% (-0.027 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.64% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.2% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.58% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.44% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 33.85%

How you voted: Celje vs Lugano

Celje
42.4%
Draw
33.3%
Lugano
24.2%
33
rhs 2.0
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