Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bragantino in this match.