World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2025 at 2.10am UK
Sky Stadium
New Caledonia3 - 0Tahiti
Gope-Fenepej (50', 75'), Waya (90+1')
Laurent Waihae Bako (8'), Athale (70'), Mathelon (73')
Laurent Waihae Bako (8'), Athale (70'), Mathelon (73')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Tehau (59')
Poma (90+3')
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Semi-Finals clash between New Caledonia and Tahiti.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Fiji 1-1 New Caledonia
Sunday, November 17 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Sunday, November 17 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Last Game: Tahiti 2-0 Vanuatu
Monday, November 18 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Monday, November 18 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 60.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Tahiti had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Tahiti win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | Tahiti |
60.31% ( 1.28) | 21.54% ( -0.42) | 18.15% ( -0.86) |
| Both teams to score 53.22% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
