Vitoria de Guimaraes will head to the Estadio da Madeira this weekend with eyes firmly set on securing European football, while Nacional aim to seal their safety on their return to the top flight.
With just three games left in the Primeira Liga, the Conquerors hold a slender grip on the Europa Conference League spot, while the hosts sit on the brink of confirming survival in their first season back among the elite.
Match preview
© Imago
Nacional took a significant step towards safety last weekend after snatching a 1-1 draw at Moreirense, with Ze Vítor's equaliser ten minutes from time earning a crucial point in a tense contest.
That result lifted Tiago Margarido's men to 33 points, nine clear of the relegation playoff zone, meaning a single point in this fixture would mathematically confirm their top-flight status heading into the final two rounds.
For a side that spent the previous three seasons in the second tier, staying up with two games to spare would represent a commendable outcome, despite finding the back of the net just 28 times – the fewest tally among teams currently outside the bottom three.
The struggle in front of goal has often left Nacional walking a tightrope, and recent trends show a clear pattern – across their last 11 matches, the White and Black have only taken points in games where they managed to score, losing all five fixtures in which they failed to register.
Defensively, however, Margarido's side have been decent, conceding 42 – the joint fourth-best defensive record outside the European qualification zone.
Yet relying solely on their backline this weekend may be risky, and history suggests they might not need to, as Nacional have only failed to score once in 17 previous matches on their own turf against Vitoria, dating back to their first home game of this fixture in 2003.
The Alvinegros have also claimed 10 wins from those encounters, including the most recent two by a single-goal margin, results that should provide a psychological edge heading into Saturday.
This season, Nacional have proven relatively strong at home, winning seven of their 15 league outings, though they have lost the last two without scoring – a trend they must reverse to ease any lingering relegation fears.
© Imago
On the other hand, Vitoria make the trip knowing a win would significantly boost their hopes of returning to the continental stage next season, having built a one-point cushion over sixth-placed Santa Clara.
The Conquerors responded in perfect fashion to their heavy defeat against Benfica by dispatching Rio Ave 3-0 in their last match, thanks to a dominant start, with all three goals coming in the first half.
That win marked Vitoria's sixth in their last eight Primeira Liga matches, and notably, five of those have come with clean sheets – underlining their ability to shut teams out when they are in control of proceedings.
The defensive pattern is telling, with the Conquerors dropping points in matches where they concede, so maintaining structure at the back will be central to their ambitions in Funchal.
Luis Freire's men have also made noticeable strides on their travels, winning two of their last three away games, having failed to claim victory in the previous nine league matches on the road.
Team News
© Imago
Rui Encarnacao returns to the squad for Nacional and could feature in goal if head coach Margarido opts for a change.
Vítor will carry confidence into the weekend after netting the equaliser in a crucial outing last time out and is expected to partner Ulisses at centre-back.
Miguel Baeza, Dyego Sousa and Ivanildo Fernandes remain sidelined as they continue their respective injury recoveries.
As for Vitoria, Umaro Embalo is ineligible to feature this Saturday, while Nelson Oliveira faces a late fitness test to determine his involvement.
Chuchu Ramirez seized his chance last weekend and should lead the line again, while Telmo Arcanjo, who also impressed, is set to keep his place out wide.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Franca; Gomes, Vítor, Ulisses, Garcia; Esteves, Soumare, Penha; Macedo, Tagueu, Yamada
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Mendes, Villanueva, Borevkovic, Maga; Handel, Silva, Mendes; Silva, Ramirez, Arcanjo
We say: Nacional 0-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional's strong record at home in this fixture might come into play, but Vitoria arrive in better shape and should have enough to edge this contest.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi
