

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 48.41% ( | 23.17% ( | 28.42% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.91% ( | 40.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.54% ( | 62.45% ( |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.19% ( | 16.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.21% ( | 46.78% ( |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.23% ( | 26.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.96% ( | 62.04% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 7.15% ( 3-1 @ 5.61% ( 3-0 @ 4.25% ( 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 4-1 @ 2.5% ( 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 4-2 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 4.21% Total : 48.41% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 2-2 @ 6.21% ( 0-0 @ 4.5% ( 3-3 @ 1.62% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.17% | 1-2 @ 6.97% ( 0-1 @ 5.93% ( 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 1-3 @ 3.06% ( 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0-3 @ 1.72% ( 1-4 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.09% Total : 28.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Columbus Crew | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Nashville SCNashville | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | New York City FCNY City | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | DC United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Toronto | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Dallas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 13 |
| 11 | St Louis City | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Houston DynamoHouston | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 3 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
