

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Morecambe |
| 46.05% ( | 25.8% ( | 28.14% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.2% ( | 51.79% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.44% ( | 73.55% ( |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.53% ( | 22.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.99% ( | 56% ( |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( | 33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.41% ( | 69.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sutton United | Draw | Morecambe |
| 1-0 @ 11.06% ( 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 3-1 @ 4.56% ( 3-0 @ 4.11% ( 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 4-1 @ 1.7% ( 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 4-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 46.04% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0-0 @ 7.41% ( 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.8% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0-2 @ 4.56% ( 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0-3 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 28.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
| P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
| P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
| 4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
| 5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
| 6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
| 7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
| 8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
| 11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
| 13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
| 14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
| 15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
| 17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
| 19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
| 20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
| R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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