

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Grimsby Town |
| 39.17% ( | 26.25% ( | 34.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.6% ( | 51.4% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.78% ( | 73.22% ( |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.28% ( | 25.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.36% ( | 60.64% ( |
| Grimsby Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.62% ( | 28.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.88% ( | 64.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sutton United | Draw | Grimsby Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.91% ( 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 2-0 @ 6.73% ( 3-1 @ 3.84% ( 3-0 @ 3.05% ( 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 4-0 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 39.17% | 1-1 @ 12.48% 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.25% | 0-1 @ 9.19% ( 1-2 @ 7.86% ( 0-2 @ 5.79% ( 1-3 @ 3.3% ( 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 1-4 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.72% Total : 34.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
| P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
| P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
| 4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
| 5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
| 6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
| 7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
| 8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
| 11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
| 13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
| 14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
| 15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
| 17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
| 19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
| 20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
| R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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