

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 48.95%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.81%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 48.95% ( | 22.92% ( | 28.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.92% ( | 39.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.59% ( | 61.4% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.77% ( | 16.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.25% ( | 45.74% ( |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.55% | 26.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.38% | 61.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% 1-0 @ 7.81% 2-0 @ 7.1% ( 3-1 @ 5.72% ( 3-0 @ 4.3% ( 3-2 @ 3.8% ( 4-1 @ 2.6% ( 4-0 @ 1.96% ( 4-2 @ 1.73% 5-1 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.56% Total : 48.95% | 1-1 @ 10.38% 2-2 @ 6.28% 0-0 @ 4.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.69% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.92% | 1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0-2 @ 3.8% ( 1-3 @ 3.06% ( 2-3 @ 2.78% 0-3 @ 1.68% ( 1-4 @ 1.02% 2-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.25% Total : 28.13% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
| P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
| P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
| 4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
| 5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
| 6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
| 7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
| 8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
| 11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
| 13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
| 14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
| 15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
| 17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
| 19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
| 20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
| R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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