Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Fleetwood Town | 
| 44.73% | 25.63% | 29.64% | 
| Both teams to score 53.42% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.69% | 50.31% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.75% | 72.25% | 
| MK Dons Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.56% | 22.44% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.02% | 55.98% | 
| Fleetwood Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.88% | 31.12% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.56% | 67.44% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| MK Dons | Draw | Fleetwood Town | 
| 1-0 @ 10.43% 2-1 @ 9.1% 2-0 @ 7.8% 3-1 @ 4.53% 3-0 @ 3.88% 3-2 @ 2.65% 4-1 @ 1.69% 4-0 @ 1.45% 4-2 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.21% Total : 44.73% | 1-1 @ 12.18% 0-0 @ 6.98% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.63% | 0-1 @ 8.15% 1-2 @ 7.11% 0-2 @ 4.76% 1-3 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.07% 0-3 @ 1.85% Other @ 2.94% Total : 29.64% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 43 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 76 | 46 | 30 | 92 | 
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 90 | 33 | 57 | 91 | 
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 77 | 37 | 40 | 90 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 43 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 85 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 43 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 75 | 
| 6 | Derby CountyDerby | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 66 | 44 | 22 | 75 | 
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 44 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 73 | 
| 8 | Portsmouth | 44 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 58 | 47 | 11 | 68 | 
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 44 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 68 | 
| 10 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 43 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 59 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 65 | 62 | 3 | 58 | 
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 44 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 57 | 
| 13 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 43 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 56 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 53 | 
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 66 | -11 | 52 | 
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 43 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 50 | 
| 17 | Port Vale | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 49 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 55 | 78 | -23 | 49 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 44 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 | 
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 43 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 41 | 
| 21 | Morecambe | 44 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 41 | 
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 43 | 11 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 66 | -29 | 40 | 
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 43 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 36 | 74 | -38 | 38 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 27 | 
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