Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 47.5%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 26.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.