

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
| 33.85% ( | 27.39% ( | 38.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.47% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.92% ( | 56.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.85% ( | 77.16% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.84% ( | 31.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.51% ( | 67.49% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( | 28.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.18% ( | 63.82% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 10.22% ( 2-1 @ 7.56% ( 2-0 @ 5.96% ( 3-1 @ 2.94% 3-0 @ 2.32% ( 3-2 @ 1.86% ( Other @ 2.99% Total : 33.85% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( 0-0 @ 8.77% ( 2-2 @ 4.79% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.38% | 0-1 @ 11.11% ( 1-2 @ 8.22% ( 0-2 @ 7.05% ( 1-3 @ 3.47% ( 0-3 @ 2.98% ( 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 1.85% Total : 38.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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