Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 69.17%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 12.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.