Jagiellonia3 - 1Backa Topola
Form, Standings, Stats
Sunday, February 16 at 4.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
for
Thursday, February 13 at 5.45pm in Conference League
We said: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Backa Topola (Jagiellonia Bialystok win 5-2 on aggregate)
The hosts boast a sizeable advantage and have no incentive to push forward, whereas the visitors will almost certainly leave themselves exposed at the back when trying to overturn their two-goal deficit. Additionally, Jagiellonia Bialystok are in much stronger form than opponents Backa Topola, who have struggled for wins in recent weeks, and it is difficult to see the home side failing to advance to the round of 16. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 42.57%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Draw | Backa Topola |
42.57% ( -0) | 24.88% ( -0) | 32.56% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 57.29% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
