

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 79.7%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 8.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-1 with a probability of 8.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (7.97%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.75%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 79.7% ( | 11.88% ( | 8.42% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.53% ( | 20.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.24% ( | 38.76% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.99% ( | 4.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 83.08% ( | 16.92% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.18% ( | 35.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.41% ( | 72.6% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 3-1 @ 8.18% ( 3-0 @ 7.97% ( 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 2-0 @ 7.43% ( 4-1 @ 6.58% ( 4-0 @ 6.4% ( 1-0 @ 4.62% ( 5-1 @ 4.23% 3-2 @ 4.2% ( 5-0 @ 4.12% ( 4-2 @ 3.38% ( 6-1 @ 2.27% ( 6-0 @ 2.21% ( 5-2 @ 2.17% ( 6-2 @ 1.16% ( 4-3 @ 1.16% ( 7-1 @ 1.04% ( 7-0 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.96% Total : 79.7% | 1-1 @ 4.75% ( 2-2 @ 3.92% ( 3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0-0 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 11.88% | 1-2 @ 2.44% ( 0-1 @ 1.48% ( 2-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 3.17% Total : 8.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
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