Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 70.02%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 11.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.77%) and 3-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.91%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (4.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
