Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 23.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
