Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25
Mar 8, 2025 at 6pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Benfica3 - 0Nacional
We said: Benfica 3-1 Nacional
Benfica enter this contest as overwhelming favourites, backed by their dominant record in this fixture and formidable home form this season. Nacional, riding the momentum of their recent success, will aim to capitalise on any potential distraction with the hosts possibly having one eye on next week's Champions League return leg in Spain, but the Reds boast enough quality and squad depth to navigate this challenge and secure the win. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 83.42%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 5.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.33%) and 4-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.17%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-2 (1.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Nacional |
83.42% ( -0.14) | 11.02% ( 0.03) | 5.56% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 46.94% ( 0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
