Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 28.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 0-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.