Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.75%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.27%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.